I will be arguing through out the next ninteen months that, although tracking polls are vital to the viablility of a canidate, they do not tell the whole story. The campaign must have deep insight into the context of the current election.
I do not wish, nor think it would it be possible, to give an exhaustive list of the criteria that the political community utilizes to decide the viability of a candidate. Since the candidate is running in a political context that is influenced by current events and past campaigns, those criterion change every election. Context:
1. An ear to the ground. Read and know everything in the press about the race, no brainer, right? This includes, every opinon shaper out there, from MI Live to a mention on an obscure podcast. Since the popular press has become decentralized the opinion of the unplugged voter will be better represented by the general blogger. What is the current consensus by the popular press of the state of the race?
2. A knowledge of the political, policy and campaign history connected to the office. For a gubinetorial race this means that the campaign should have a working knowledge of the State's political history. The historical focus should center around campaign's that are quicly recalled by the experiances of staff members. Fresh ideas do not always have to be new ideas. Tastes and styles change, but people do not. How have others excelled in simmalar election contexts?
3. The synthesis between these two points. along with past elections defines the context of the election.
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